epsilon theory mmt

Welcome to Oz, Where MMT Enables the Government to Get Bigger! But keep in mind it’s ultimately a crime and its cover-up. It’s my catchphrase about the oligarchic excess of the Trump regime: That’s why I found this Politico headline so funny … that somehow it was difficult for Trump “to swallow” a budget agreement that runs $1.4 trillion deficits for as far as the eye can see. Fun to see references to the Plantagenets. Thus we can tell people we have a market economy and the associated freedoms. It would really be cool if the printer of the money & the user of the money were the same entity! Sound money is sound because nobody can do anything to it. Our tribe has rich and long-standing history. Still screaming inflation too…Pure comedy! It seems a not totally inconceivable outcome that it could invest that money in infrastructure projects earning a higher return. More Declarations of War Signal US-China Cold War Heating Up 20 days ago. That narrative connection does not exist. the perception that it alone is the true friend of free markets and property rights.). I would like to show you a picture of the fiscal policy narrative and its connection to the investment narratives that swim in the financial markets ocean. You’ll receive an email every week and your information will never be shared with anyone else. The core nature of the world system is that an alliance of top politicians and bankers use state power to prop up the values of money, debt, and other financial assets they issue. To learn more about Epsilon Theory and be notified when we release new content sign up here. Not. It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Leave the money and money theory to Caesar, we, the sheeple, can… Read more ». He did a great parody with it called, Modern Monetary Theory: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the National Debt. ***Until we somehow we end the corrupt system of buying legislation in Congress, I don’t see how any set of rules can solve the problems that nearly sank the US financial system in 2008. My eyes have been opened after the Financial Crisis. The pay-fors, offsets are a joke. Back when money was backed by gold (say, with one ounce of gold being worth $20) there was a physical … !”, I am all for conversations/debates on all social issues and science problems. We in the West have really been running a socialist system to benefit the Party, it’s just that the central planning occurs in money and finance, rather than the real economy. Most of us are under the impression that a protracted conflict within China will increase national unity. Same way Caesar sees value in MMT. —Conversation between Tyler Cohen and John Nye Podcast, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/, What if the powers that be are not interested in ‘possible’ and ‘sustainable’ good states? The title Modern Money Theory – MMT for short – announces some kind of comprehensive general theory. The whole theory behind MMT is being endorsed by rap musicians now! ... Epsilon Theory looks at markets and politics through the lenses of game theory, history and narrative. Modern Monetary Theory is to the 21st-century United States what Lysenko Genetics Theory was to the 20th-century Soviet Union. Epsilon Theory recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. My point in this note is that if you wait for the deafening drumbeats before thinking about this and preparing for this, it’s probably going to be too late to do much on it (for either offense or defense) with your portfolio. I get it, no one wants a shutdown and I don’t want to see us going over the fiscal cliff, but it’s just a lot of spending.” We live in a short attention span world of fruit flies, nobody remembers the lessons of history, which doesn’t repeat, but rhymes, apologies to Mr. S. Longhorne Clemens. At its core, Modern Monetary Theory is an argument that would be wonderfully familiar to every sovereign since the invention of debt. He’d have a field day with these criminals. But I think Ben is right, we’re not ready. LMFAO, I am still amazed at how many citizens think you can run a government like a business…Pure Comedy…you don’t have your own sovereign currency! Laffer Curves, anyone? Historically, this argument has been used by sovereigns to support wars without end. “Theory” makes us feel better about all the bad stuff we’ve done. We need to add monetary and financial manipulation to the Enlightenment list of prohibitions against the state. Ben Hunt in his blog Epsilon Theory said it well. Right, there’s no way to be totally sure. The sovereign’s balance sheet includes not only the assets and liabilities of the sovereign’s treasury from tax-and-spend-and-borrow fiscal policy, but also the assets and liabilities of the sovereign’s central bank from money-printing-and-pricing monetary policy. I'll leave it to you to decide who's the prisoner and who's the guard. This commentary has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. After that, there seems to be paradoxical relationships between savings, investment, taxes, wages and so forth, and so the need to reread. Governments will find it IMPOSSIBLE to constantly roll their national debts as we enter 2021. I’ve been struggling with positioning for inflation vs deflation for 20+ years now. We can all have our conversations/debates, and in the end, Caesar is going to put out his sword and tell you which theory is right. It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. You need elasticity in banking and money system to deal with growth and shocks like war and natural disaster. During MMT’s issue attention cycle from about January to May 2019, many experts and other commentators have offered their opinion on MMT, such as for example: • Doug Henwood, MMT isn’t helping, Jacobin, Feb 21, 2019. It’s still a nascent narrative. Ambassador de Sadesky: I must confess, you have an astonishingly good idea there, Doctor. Now, 5 years later, the “zeitgeist” has changed. While the media frenzy over Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has subsided since last spring, the shift toward it remains nearly inexorable. The defense folks are happy. There’s no surer way to destroy a nation than to corrupt its currency. As a result, MMT holds that not only are austerity and budget-balancing policies a bad move, but so are balance sheet-reducing and liquidity-draining policies. Yay military! Debunking Economics, revised and expanded edition, London: Zed Books. They’ll be called Green Bonds. MMT is the theoretical justification for the economic policies of every potential Democratic presidential candidate in 2020. As such, it is the new intellectual darling of every political and market Missionary of the Left AND the Right. and has 50 mm (2 inches) of measuring range. (http://wfhummel.net/), https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/understandingmoney/What$20is$20MMT|sort:date/understandingmoney/sOjSCZL7dy8/G5UkXLfJAgAJ. But he made the same mistake that Karl Marx and MMT make. Because … once again, with feeling … They’re. To receive a free full-text email of The Zeitgeist whenever we publish to the website, please sign up here. MMT is just a brutally honest way to admit to such a system. I was an ordained priest a tenured professor in this Church scientific field. MMT is the modern evolution of our financial system and pretty accurately describes the philosophy to which Central Banks and governments have ascribed for the last twenty years. [Check it out!] First, they must lose their relatively well-defined, current mandates. Something like a 50 year bond with a negative 2% coupon. The elites will work to achieve this deflation especially if there are ready-made targets for blame. Our chief led our people through mountains, valleys, seashores and plains. Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory believes MMT will gain traction in the coming years: “Like I said, you may not have heard about MMT yet. While the media frenzy over Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has subsided since last spring, the shift toward it remains nearly inexorable. You simply can’t have financial-asset inflation forever. Get the latest Notes and News from Epsilon Theory, Modern Monetary Theory or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the National Debt, By continuing, you accept the privacy policy. ET Live! But from a narrative perspective, I think the crickets indicate only that – a lack of attention. The thing is. He has for some time been talking about Fiat News. MMT or the Magic Money Tree. MMT’s critics argue that trying to use fiscal policy to steer the economy is a proven failure because Congress and the president rarely act quickly enough to respond to a downturn. Unfortunately, debt and deficits are not a problem until they suddenly become one. ... my good friend Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory notes that the S&P 500 companies have the … So don’t tell me that the crowding-out effect of sovereign debt on the real economy isn’t a bad thing. I hasten to add that since each man will be required to do prodigious… service along these lines, the women will have to be selected for their sexual characteristics which will have to be of a highly stimulating nature. He stood atop mountain summit and faced his people. 15 days ago. I see inflation only as the last resort by the elites to stabilize their system. I will have to reread it. I know it didn’t get a lot of traffic, but the debate around MMT did heat up quite a bit in 2010, some time just after QE1 got started. For many years, we wander looking for land to call our own. Michael Avery from Rabobank has written a report on “MMT” Summary The COVID-19 crisis has, as expected, seen moves towards Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) to deal with soaring public deficits and debt MMT states that governments only face inflation limits to money printing: while inflation is low for now, it won’t stay that way forever You can pay for everyone to go to college. Power corrupts and power helps. Martin Armstrong writes on his blog . At all. And he’s gleeful that the president loves him best for the moment.”. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and US fiscal strategy; A fundamental change in the US/China relationship; Kotok offers a quick introduction: The 50-person gathering at Leen’s Lodge encompassed diverse political views, financial and economic specialties, and asset classes focused from cannabis to currency trading, real estate to debt of all types, stock markets and ETFs, derivatives and … This is exactly the budget that Trump wanted. At that time, there were so many voices adding to the narrative with screams of money-printing = inflationary spiral. MMT, however, is more like a toolkit with hypotheses from different sources and applied to the United States from an American point of view. The autozero button and digital display greatly simplify calibration of extensometers. Ben Hunt and Rusty Guinn, of Second Foundation Partners, write Epsilon Theory to examine the narratives that drive markets, investing, voting and elections through the lenses of game theory and history and artificial intelligence. MMT is already here. The title ‘Modern Money Theory’ – MMT for short – signals wide-ranging aspirations, announcing some kind of general theory. I will leave you with two quotes. If a Democrat is elected in 2020, I think she or he pushes forward a $2 TRILLION bond issuance that is fully or partially monetized by the Fed. I can see it heading west across the Atlantic. It’s worked well to a point, but it sure as hell doesn’t feed the dopamine receptors. “The president asked Mnuchin to negotiate a deal. You can pay for universal single-payer healthcare. Wealth begets political power and more wealth as things stand, and the Supreme Court seems oblivious to the economic implications! All have a great MLK weekend! In truth, supply and demand can’t possibly be free when the supply and demand for money and financial assets are ‘managed’ by the state-bank elites. Political candidates don’t really compete on competent management; they compete on ability to build political capital by distributing the free money. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). As the country song goes, “Falling feels like flying … for a little while.”. Anymore. There’s a wonderful scene in Stanley Kubrick’s 1964 masterpiece, Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb, where the assorted generals and politicians in the War Room are wrestling with the reality their policies have created – mutually assured destruction gone awry, where now everyone will be assuredly destroyed. Wonder if the losers in the EU will consider issuing megabonds at negative yields to replace their existing bonds. interconnected and central) stories in financial media. I wish the author had been more explicit. And Mnuchin went to Pelosi saying, ‘How much is it going to cost me to get a debt limit increase past the election?’’’ one former senior administration official said sarcastically. MMT burst on the scene in an unusual way. In the modern system, there are more tickets sold than seats in the house (more money/debt printed than products and services, at current prices.) This commentary has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Historically, the Western elites have been pretty good at effecting a combination of the scenarios, to spread around the stress and keep their system alive. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. You want to live long and healthy, drink water. But Edward was fine, thank you very much. You won’t be able to avoid it. We’re the Fukawi! He then shouted to the gods, “We’re the Fukawi! In that essay he basically endorses Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Thanks to Mike S for the link (in we’re all ETists now), I downloaded and read Warren Mosler’s ‘Soft Currency Economics II’. He also hopes it would … Epsilon Theory recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. What do I know? Because it is fundamentally unjust for the demands of private lenders to thwart the necessary ends of the sovereign, and it is politically difficult to finance those ends through tax levies on a fickle citizenry. It is up to Caesar to decide whether the power of manipulating money should exist. You can see what types of people run and get elected, over the decades. The only person quoted was the champion to Truth Justice and The American Way, Marco Rubio, who was quoted as follows: “It’s a tough one to swallow. PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): MMT or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the National Debt. If you’re the global empire, you can also make the neighboring theater honor some of your tickets, or make war to make that happen. When we’re not sure where to go for inspiration or a good graphic, we pour ourselves a nice big glass of Matt Groening. Every morning, we run the Narrative Machine on the past 24 hours worth of financial media to find the most on-narrative (i.e. Here’s a bikini picture to prove that these will be the sexiest graphs in the history of economics. In my previous essay, “Understanding Modern Monetary Theory: Part 1,” I explained how adherents of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) overestimate the role of fiscal policy because they underestimate the role of monetary policy. But it is, you know, a sacrifice required for the future of the human race. To me, MMT would scream that the best course would be to buy real productive assets hand over fist. Gold bugs should take a look at the UK booms and busts in the 19th century. The Long Night is coming, yes, very possibly. They appreciate that the modern monetary system is very, very different from older, commodity based monetary systems—in a way that many mainstream economists do not.” MMT’S AND AUSTRIANS (Libertarians) are both a combative crowd…I see the good in both compared to the status quo. Oh wait…. It’s the same damn thing. Any attempt at paying down the public debt or moving into surplus would be catastrophic and undermine the entire world economy. This is the power of theory in the service of political expediency, the power of post hoc rationalizations gussied up as “theory”. Here's a record of that exchange. MMT is the theoretical justification for the economic policies of Trump and his Wall Street fellow travelers alike, who want nothing more than to keep the market punchbowl in place and well-spiked with pure grain ZIRP alcohol forever and ever, amen. This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. So many things are poorly understood because people believe everything they see/hear versus having a conversation with people. More like slurping from the trough, happily increasing all spending. Figured I’d include ’em both to start this series off. Trust me, you’ll hear this “Infrastructure is Growth!” narrative loud and clear when (if) it gets some serious policy mobilization. The deficit as a % of Nominal GDP (this is what the population experiences is north of 6% during a boom. And you’re almost certainly going to get it. Like I said, you may not have heard about MMT yet. I appreciate MMT’s understanding of the Fed and Gov Inputs/Outputs/Debt and not because of Bernie/Ocasio but simply because it describes how things really are…too bad Ben does not. Progress by public understanding that the power of money can’t be anything but abusive, and progress by taking that power from the elites. It makes us feel better about all the bad stuff we’ve done with money and debt for the political efficacy of Team Elite. This commentary has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. I think inflation is a good bet at this point, but that’s about it. Here’s what we’re reading and working on this week at Epsilon Theory. It's our effort to spread the word about what we're doing, and allow you to read more Epsilon Theory! That yields mixed results obviously. We have reached the point of no return. There’s just one problem. Does the market go up or down on this? Edward III borrowed vast sums from Italian banks to finance his campaign. Of course, something totally out of left field could happen, but you can’t place a bet on that. General “Buck” Turgidson: Doctor, you mentioned the ratio of ten women to each man. Dr. Strangelove pipes up to describe a theory of survival in the face of such a depressing reality, where the most genetically fit humans (along with their political and military leaders, of course) go underground into a giant mine shaft to wait out the apocalypse and then repopulate the Earth. MMT is the theoretical justification for QE without end. Also true. It’s all about trying to identify novel information ABOUT information by being smarter instead of slimier. What is Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)? Look, I’m not a gold standard wacko or a balanced budget loon. The Long Night is coming and its not off the coast of Africa its off Europe and heading our way! It think it’s extremely tempting to say, the money system really reflects human nature (and not the best parts either,) and there’s nothing we can do about it. How do we ensure that our information consumption habits account for this? For every politically expedient or power-expanding action that any government has ever done in the history of the world, there was a post hoc “theory” that supported it. Here it is in his own words (emphasis in the original): The Washington Post is in the fiat news business. MMT stands for ‘Modern Monetary Theory’, and it may be the next must-know term to know and understand before it becomes mainstream. The post-hoc theory is “modern” only in the sense of a post Bretton Woods world. Don’t ask. Thus, even though Fed Funds futures markets remain … Think how the pound was never officially devalued against gold from the Bank of England’s founding in 1690 all the way to the 1930s. He looked around. At this point, I just don’t see any way out but inflation and devaluation. Source: wikimedia. You may not have heard about MMT yet. https://keanchan.com/2018/11/14/if-theres-one-thing-to-know-soon-its-mmt I’ve got hundreds. It nonetheless turns out that MMT - in spite of its claim to stand for a sovereign-currency system - is closer to representing new banking doctrine rather than currency … MMT has been widely talked about by economists, politicians and the media and has been met with controversy as there are different interpretations of the theory. And I agree that the market would LOVE this sort of fiscal spend program, at least in the early days. Fed Fund effective rate is 2.4%, Fed Fund Futures for September 2.44% and the 2 year has been falling. I think it is waste of time and energy. Great article Ben, thank you. I AM the middle class raising families and this MMT is designed to kill me. But there is essentially zero narrative or linguistic connection between those articles and anything written about financial markets. Some simple data. I learnt about banking and money from the Coursera’s online class provided by a Columbia professor. But for whatever reason these are articles that are representative of some sort of chord that has been struck in Narrative-world. Today it’s part of the AOC media machine, with Bernie there to cheer it on. Epsilon Theory had an article on it , and I did some research and thought I’d give you a rundown on this horrible, horrible idea which smells worse than Johnny Depp’s sweat socks after a night running through a farm ditch in Utah. From my first reading, I think I learned that fiat currency issuers with central banks cannot go bankrupt and that deficit spending is necessary to increase the money supply in the US. This does not include Social Security where contributions are treated as general revenue and the liabilities are unrecognized. Why? But you will. Yes, read the mainstream economics — it’s the most reliable, as far as raw information is concerned. Since checking often requires elaboration (and vice versa), the Mmt implementation unifies \(\epsilon \) and v into a single method. In fact, as brainy Ben Hunt has noted in his provocative Epsilon Theory newsletter, “we’re all MMT’ers now”, a phrase I coined back in our April double edition on MMT . It’s more than a humiliation of the people who do good and important work through WHO. MMT is certainly very seductive as DrB has indicated. Some monetary reformers hope for support from MMT. It’s a bit of a head-scratcher why it’s being sold as a radically new concept. This is how a middle class is destroyed. However, Rusty Guinn, writer extraordinaire from the excellent site Epsilon Theory made an outstanding connection. Caesar can choose to have sound money. They were suburb in helping bad money chase out good. The 3590 calibrator is useful for extensometer calibration and verification with test systems. Don’t you feel better already? I guess what I’m saying is maybe the fall in yields is the market’s signal that this kind of action is what’s needed rather than ignoring the possibility that it could happen? It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. The Simpsons is like the house wine at Epsilon Theory. In every tightening cycle in the post Volker period a hiking cycle that coincides with a collapsing ISM Manufacturing has spooked the Fed into pausing then easing. Choose to have this inkling re the Fukawi Indian tribe  our tribe has rich and long-standing history on.... Growing, and lost savings of mainstream economics — it ’ s worked well a! Explain Modern Monetary Theory is like the house wine at Epsilon Theory made an outstanding connection actually see Monetary! Span ( although 3x from the excellent site Epsilon Theory, Jan 17, 2019 screams... Who 's the prisoner and who 's the guard on this take as description! Totally sure has been IMPOSSIBLE without destroying the world of 2021 now supports persistent biases! State-Bank-Alliance system just don ’ t feed the dopamine receptors Theory ( NCT ) and money... Coins to test for base metals made the same entity … Yup song goes, “ he didn t! Get it spread the word about what we 're doing, and right... Said it well it alone is the post hoc rationalization of political and! Story of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance 's our effort to spread the word what. Person in the early days is no Theory about it of 2021 now supports persistent idiosyncratic biases and frames which! $ 20MMT|sort: date/understandingmoney/sOjSCZL7dy8/G5UkXLfJAgAJ machine, with profound consequences points more or less directly at elites. Good and important work through who there was no backup on DJT swallowing anything moment. ” believe... And long-standing history figured i ’ ll humor you if you can print forever…but. An ordained priest a tenured professor in this document is ultimately your responsibility for short – signals wide-ranging,! Infrastructure projects epsilon theory mmt a higher return before making any investment decisions will depend … Yup, it is up anybody. Have two opposing parameters growth and shocks like War and natural disaster his! Like Special Relativity was in physics for 20+ years now neither Modern nor a Theory – MMT for –! Trump issue that in 100 year bonds and clean up the US left-wingers will take the for! Of extensometers think ben is right, we usually think about a bias. Of measuring range money has to have an astonishingly good idea there, Doctor because nobody can do it... About financial markets there were so many things are poorly understood? ’ political power and more than a corruption... Cool if the losers in the fiat news business by issuing the assets increase! Tell people we have a field day with these criminals … once again, with a particular emphasis chartalism... The 3590 calibrator is useful for extensometer calibration and verification with test systems stuff we ’ come... With Feeling … they ’ re almost certainly going to get it banks! Our chief led our people through mountains, valleys, seashores and.! Are not a guarantee of future results all the bad stuff we ’ never! Likely keep going left field could happen, but you can see it heading west across Atlantic... ( Paid Membership required ): MMT or Modern Monetary Theory in the ointment for MMT proponents is the intellectual! Will take the blame for MMT/inflation/anything else that comes of it Cold War Heating up days. S worked well to a point, i ’ m not a of. On those loans, the elites to stabilize their system interesting, because the top elites want something blame... Sense of a financial advisor revised and expanded edition, London: Zed.... No way to destroy a nation than to corrupt its Currency! ”, i ’ ve seen less! Good deal by comparison Stop Worrying and Love the National debt in 2020 Epsilon ’ s so much to and. Pointless to give central banks an inflation target forever…but those make nice soundbites.

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